By Stephen Galloway
LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) -
One evening last
November, a handful of journalists and industry insiders eased
into the plush armchairs of a Hollywood screening room to watch
"The Golden Compass," the Nicole Kidman fantasy based on the
first novel in Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials" trilogy.
New Line Cinema had been touting the costly movie as a
sure-fire awards contender, destined to take its place
alongside their last major Oscar winner, 2003's "The Lord of
the Rings: The Return of the King."
Within hours, New Line's hopes crashed as e-mails and text
messages swept across town. After two years, $180 million in
production costs and the best efforts of the studio's Oscar
campaigners, the movie would go on to be shut out of the major
categories.
Welcome to the reality of the Oscar race, in which highly
touted thoroughbreds can pull up lame while unheralded upstarts
turn into Seabiscuits.
This year has seen its share of both. "Juno," a $7 million
comedy that premiered at the Telluride Film Festival in
September 2006, came out of nowhere and surprised even its
director, Jason Reitman, when it earned four nominations,
including one for Reitman himself. But far more often this
season, pictures stumbled along the way.
Remember "Lust, Caution?" The tony teaming of director Ang
Lee, co-writer James Schamus and Asian superstar Tony Leung
never gathered momentum, despite wowing at the Venice Film
Festival.
What is surprising about this season is how long it took
for the real contenders to emerge; indeed, it was not until the
very beginning of this month that there was a true front-runner
for best picture.
But after winning the top awards from the Screen Actors
Guild, the Directors Guild of America, the Producers Guild of
America and the Writers Guild of America, Joel and Ethan Coen's
"No Country for Old Men" has emerged as the favorite.
The Miramax/Paramount Vantage co-production's long journey
began unusually early, at the Cannes Film Festival in May.
Several American-made movies competed for the Palme d'Or,
but the jury gave the top prize to Romania's "4 Months, 3 Weeks
and 2 Days," shutting "No Country" out of the winner's circle
altogether, despite its laudatory response.
A lull followed Cannes, interrupted by Venice in late
August, where "Atonement" and "Michael Clayton" debuted
strongly.
Then, at the Toronto International Film Festival in early
September, historically a launching pad for Oscar winners, no
single film emerged with front-runner Oscar buzz, though word
of mouth increased for "No Country," "Clayton" and "Atonement,"
all of which played there.
Fox Searchlight had intended to release "Juno" in the
spring, but after Toronto's raucous screenings, it rethought
its strategy. "That convinced Searchlight: Don't wait for this
movie; let's figure out a way to put it out in the fall," Smith
says.
Still, in the weeks following Toronto, the Oscar scene
looked bleak. There was no buzz, no front-runner and one
awards-targeted movie after another tanked at the box office.
Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises," Terry George's "Reservation
Road," Kasi Lemmons' "Talk to Me" and even "Lust, Caution."
Only "Atonement" survived the onslaught after its release was
delayed by three months to the second weekend of December.
Into
the Wild," "Margot at the Wedding" and "A Mighty Heart
Hopes were also dashed for other highly anticipated
releases, like the Tom Cruise-Robert Redford collaboration
"Lions for Lambs," the first screenings of which left many in
the media shocked into silence.
By the middle of the fall, awards season was in disarray.
"Gone Baby Gone" had opened to decent business and good reviews
on October 19, but only the performance by Amy Ryan generated
lasting appeal.
It was against this background that "No Country" proved a
sensation at the New York Film Festival in early October and
then added to its strength with excellent box office when it
opened November 9.
"Up until then, everybody was saying independent film was
dead," says Mark Gill, former president of Warner Independent
and now CEO of the Film Department. "If Miramax had opened it a
few weeks later, it would not have done nearly as well. But
when it opened, it was the only film that anyone who loved
films was talking about."
Still, "No Country" was by no means a lock. Its ending left
even fans disappointed, and its violence loomed as a major
obstacle to winning an Oscar.
Then the first of the big awards bodies, the National Board
of Review, gave "No Country" its top prize. "That really helps;
it really anoints it," Gill says.
This was soon followed by the New York Film Critics Circle
AwardPaul
Thomas Anderson's film pick up some steam. ("Blood" was also a
Paramount Vantage/Miramax co-production.)
With "Blood" and "No Country" jostling for attention, and
with "Michael Clayton" and "Atonement" nipping at their heels,
insiders waited for the December 13 Golden Globe nominations,
convinced they would add clarity.
But the Globes made things even more complicated by
selecting an eye-popping seven movies in the best dramatic
picture category.
Uncertainty turned into utter confusion a month later, in
mid-January, when the Globes named "Atonement" best drama and
"Sweeney Todd
"The Globes saved 'Atonement,"' says Bob Berney, president
of Picturehouse. "It seemed to be faltering before that. But
they also had an amazing ad campaign that is the most
aggressive in making you believe this is an Academy
Award-winning movie."
The Globes seemed to dent "No Country's" hopes. But as time
went by, insiders had begun to re-evaluate the film. The ending
seemed less troubling. And the picture's violence did not seem
any worse than, say, "Sweeney Todd's" or "Blood's" or the 2007
best picture winner "The Departed."
When the Oscar nominations finally were unveiled January
22, few were surprised that "No Country" tied "Blood" with
eight nominations apiece.
Then the Hollywood guilds all opted for "No Country,"
making the front-runner obvious.
Now "No Country" is the film to beat. But does that mean it
is certain to win? Oscar veterans theorize that it and "Blood"
could split the same indie-leaning vote, leaving an opening for
"Atonement" or "Clayton." "Juno" could even ride its uniqueness
into an upset win. This is no awards season for the weak of
heart.
Reuters/Hollywood Reporter
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